Tie-Breakers. Advantage Obama. Advice? Take Nothing for Granted
The recent CBS and Rasmussen polls show the race between Barack Obama and John McCain to be tied. Gallup has McCain taking a slight 3 point lead.
At the moment, all indications point to a very close contest between the GOP and Democratic nominees – but I want to point out that 57 days is a very long time in a Presidential campaign and anything can happen to blow the doors off the race in either direction.
However, if the race stays closely fought to the end, there are a number of possible tie-breakers that could decide the outcome:
1. Polls are likely underestimating the turnout of young voters because many of these voters use cell phones and pollsters are having a difficult time including their views with accuracy. Obama has a big advantage with these voters. As a potential tie-breaker – ADVANTAGE OBAMA.
2. Polls are likely underestimating African-American turnout in the election for the same reason. Many of these households have cell phones instead of landlines, have only recently been registered to vote, or do not get through the screening questions of pollsters including “did you vote in the last election?” As a potential tie-breaker – ADVANTAGE OBAMA
3. The Bradley Effect. So named because when Tom Bradley, the African-American Mayor of Los Angeles ran for Governor of California polls showed him up by 10points – he lost the election. Pollsters later determined that many white voters had failed to tell pollsters the truth about how they intended to vote. I was Tom Bradley’s Deputy Campaign Manager in 1982. I saw the “Bradley effect” up close at the age of 26 – it was real. It is 26 years later and I can tell you two things for sure it isn’t the minus 10 points that it was in 1982 but it isn’t zero either. There will be an overestimation of the number of white voters casting ballots for Obama. As a potential tie-breaker – ADVANTAGE McCAIN.
The problem with these three tie-breakers is that they may well cancel each other out nationally. Higher than expected votes among younger voters and African-American voters will shield Obama from any concurrent lower than expected support from white voters across the nation. But what concerns me is that I doubt this will be the case on a state-by-state basis.
In other words, if more young voters in California vote for Obama, they do not (through the wonders of the electoral college) offset a lower than expected vote among white voters for him in Virginia., or Ohio or other swing state. Florida is a logical state to worry about where the advantage could work to McCain’s favor as just one example.
Two other potential tie-breakers are money and organization. On the money front its clearly ADVANTAGE OBAMA. Barack Obama will have far greater resources than the McCain campaign and the GOP — and with those resources Obama will be able to run much stronger field and get-out-the-vote operations in state after state than McCain.. Traditionally a strong organization can make up 1 or 2 points on election day – occasionally even 3 points. But is this already baked into the cake? If young voters and African American voters are going to be underestimated – are they not the 2 to 3 points Obama’s organization will be turning out?
And then there is the new found energy among the Republican right. Has McCain’s pick of Sarah Palin lit up a volunteer army on the right to rally a successful get-out-the –vote effort for McCain and compete with the Obama effort?
In the end the advantages, of increased turnout of younger voters and African Americans combined with Obama’s stronger resources and organization should put Barack Obama over the top. But the race has to stay close.
ADVANTAGE OBAMA.
Advice – take McCain seriously. There are 57 days left and he has kept the race a tie when the GOP nominee should be eating your dust.
Comments on this are Welcome. Will try to check in on the discussion and take part through the day Monday.
What I keep seeing in bars and on streets is that for people on the fence, there are far too few portable “didja know” stories about Obama. Instead, one ends up bringing arguments, reasons–which is preferable of course, but better if there’s a big posse of “didja knows” to come along with it. I hear some didja knows about Biden (the train ride, that he’s not rich), and dozens upon dozens about Palin, and just a handful about McCain. Some of which are bad.
If you’re sitting at the pool hall watching the first day of football (or, in my case, reading the paper while everyone around you is watching the first day of football), and someone makes fun of all the old men looking at Sarah Palin’s ass, and someone else brings up a few stories about her (the moose, the bear), what one wants is the little fun fact about Obama that moves. (There are ideas that carry a lot of friction with them, and there are ideas that are close to frictionless, they almost have to move. All the Palin stories, good and bad, are close to frictionless.)
Here in NC, where its close enough to be close, its clearly not just about turnout–though its a lot about turnout. I have started to understand why people say they don’t know much about Obama, even though they do–I think what they mean is that they don’t have images of him moving in the world, the way they can see Biden on a train or Palin in the woods or McCain in a cell.
In other words, all your analysis seems spot on. But, as a democrat, I’m finding myself hungry for small loose true things to pass on in the casual moments, and I don’t just mean “more of the same vs. change.”
Joe, The sad truth is that everyone has hyped this convention as the most important thing since penicillin and McCain has reduced it to a Going Out of Business sale at NotsMart Department Stores.
We’re not going to be able to get out of the gutter on this thing. We’re talking about electing a someone who is more familiar with seeing the rear ends of sled dogs than being VP.
Good lord, I use the restroom twice a day but that doesn’t qualify me to be a plumber.
C’mon. Obama can’t compete in trailer park pissing contests about who people feel more comfortable standing in a porto-potty line with.
You are neglecting the true IQ of middle Americans fed up with using their brains.
Advantage: Boopsie or Nyuk Nyuk, or whatever the hell they call their ticket.
Most people don’t vote with facts or logic. (See Bush 2004.) They vote with their lizard brains, and saying that’s a silly way to vote DOESN’T CHANGE THE RESULTS. Dear God, Democrats, GET IN THE GAME!!!!
Shoulda picked Hillary….for either spot.
Bad judgement.
He lost it when he didn’t pick Hillary. And once the 527’s are through with him it’s going to be even worse for him. I predict McCain wins by a large margin.
I don’t like either candidate, so I’m sitting this one out for the first time in 30 years.
No worse choices than the last two elections…might even be better.
I really think that the reaction to Palin hurts the Democrats — this sense that if you fall for her you must not be able to think is not going to bring people over to Obama and Biden — more likely to drive them away. This is the reason that charges of elitism and aloofness stick.
But what about shifting the blame? You “fell for her” because you were lied to or because the MSM mislead you?
Moreover people don’t like to be made fools of so it could be that when the next shoe drops, it will be too much to let slide.
Joe,
The mob that falls for Palin has no interest in Democrats. When is the party going to get it. These elections are not about facts or who is smarter or who is more polite.
Patronizing Palin simply reinforces the idea that Democrats “accomodate”.
Look, I’ll be voting for Obama but Obama’s “let’s all be nice-nice centrist” rhetoric is one wheelbarrow full of compost too many.
Palin is formidable because she plays the stupid card better than anyone at the table. This will be a series of zingers and smears that Biden and Obama had better pay back in kind. If I’m the Democrats preparing for the debates, I’m enlisting Triumph the comic Dog as a consultant because that’s where this is heading. Otherwise this is Bush/Gore all over again.
Using reason and respect for the opposing candidate is a losing strategy. Short, simple common sense myths are the order of the day. Nobody reads the after fact checker material – that falls on deaf ears.
Obama has to stop saying they “can’t make stuff up and reinvent themselves” – they’re doing it and will trump yesterday’s lies in the process. If those are the rules of the game, play the hand that’s dealt.
Suzie from Philly – you got it right. As one of Kesey’s characters once said, “Don’t give the bastards an inch.”
Not one.
OK I don’t understand why people don’t see the obvious. The McCain campaign is building their entire message on tearing down Obama. It’s a cheap easy way for them to win. They have no strategy, no real plan or real issues to discuss. So they talk about or mock Obama and portray him as some kind of elite-type person (as if Cindy McCain is a normal bloke) Either way Obama looses, if he jabs back he is looked down upon and if sticks to the high road, no one really listens. Why…because this is a culture of ‘SENSATIONALISM’ and it sell and somehow, the RNC/McCain crowd has got a good grip on this strategy and it works for them every time. In one fell swoop, McCain has stolen Obama’s “change’ identity and gone for something that tore the Dems appart in the primary, a woman for a running mate. So what do we do….lots of ritual dances, omming and kumbayas to get people to the polls. I think its good all the voter registration that is happening, key to that though is making sure they get to the polls and vote on election day. Otherwise, the 60,000 new voters in NV that moveon registers will be for not. Follow through could be the key to it all. Do those dances and chanting now to the “GOTV Gods”
Now the Obama campaign says it is worried about making its fundraising goals? Can’t be true. I hope they have enough money to fund the GOTV operations. This is one of their big advantages over McCain.
Joe,
Here’s a real tie-breaker – voter suppression in VA.
http://www.boingboing.net/2008/09/08/virginia-politicians.html
Here we go, again. Let the hand wringing begin. VaTech student votes being suppressed? LMAO Where’s Katherine Harris when the dems need her?
Here’s the deal: the Obama charisma is being met, checked and superceded by the Palin personality. I don’t think you want to challenge her on experience, she’s got enough, more than Obama and a track record, with positives and negatives, to prove it. Judgement? Obama talked about change and looking forward and then turned around and reached back for the ultimate 35 year, Washington insider, prototypical blowhard senator – a wrong turn and poor judgement. McCain picked Palin.
Obamas poor judgement is coming back to haunt him. If he can’t make obvious campaign decisions, how’s he going to handle Putin?
Palin fans are stupid?
That’s why the “elitist” label sticks to dems.
It’s McCain that thinks your stupid jhc. Palin’s forign policy experience is that Alaska is close to Russia? I think even your brighter than that. Maybe.
Joe,
All the talk of the Bradley effect makes me wonder if there might be a reverse Bradley effect, especially in key states. Let me explain my reasoning, and let me start by saying this is all speculation and wondering aloud, but . . .
I wonder if all the talk about the Bradley effect might actually nullify the effect in certain voters, that is some voters will actually vote for Obama just to prove they are not racist, or that they are willing to vote for a minority candidate for office. And, I think the more one sees voters who clearly express racial views, like the video clips we saw before the West Virginia and Kentucky primary, or the statements by the individuals arrested in Denver actually help Obama. People might want to distance themselves from the “clearly racist person,” sort of a double check on themselves. Someone goes into the voting booth thinks “I can’t vote for Obama because (insert rationalization)” than they think to themselves “oh, maybe I am not voting for him because of my racist views, isn’t that the Bradley effect” so in response they vote Obama just to prove they are not affected by his race. Speculation yes. Over thinking this, perhaps, but my one bit of proof . . . The Cosby Show.
Why was this show number one for so many years? I would suggest that there was a certain number of viewers who “proved” they were not racist by watching the show, and declaring it their favorite show. Indeed The Cosby Show was offered as proof that race was no longer an issue in America. So call it the reverse Bradley effect or The Cosby effect, but the more the Bradley effect is talked about the less effect I think it will have.
-Dave Parry, @academicdave
Zephyr,
The one I always tell is, Didja know that when Obama left Harvard he could have written his ticket to any law firm in the country — and millions in pay — but he went back to Chicago to help people on the south side who’d lost their jobs when the steal plants closed down. He is dedicated to making life better for people — for Barney Smith, rather than Smith Barney…
…and McCain could have gone home early but didn’t because it was the honorable thing to do.
Obama went back to Chicago to get into politics.
John McCain never stooped as low as getting into politics….lol
My great great grand-father told me that Governor Palen’s in the early 1900’s people on fathers side were all boot-leggers of good corn moonshine. This was illegal but people would come up to three hundred mile to buy their good tasting corn moonshine. Sara’s dad stopped bootlegging a few years before they moved to alaska. He told us all the law was getting to nosey. He sure made good stuff everyone said. We were all told sara married a PALON but they changed that name to palin for some reason. We always like the family in Idaho
I wanted to research this subject and write a paper. Your post what a thousand words would not. Nice job.
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