07 September 2008 ~ 76 Comments

Tie-Breakers. Advantage Obama. Advice? Take Nothing for Granted

The recent CBS and Rasmussen polls show the race between Barack Obama and John McCain to be tied. Gallup has McCain taking a slight 3 point lead.
At the moment, all indications point to a very close contest between the GOP and Democratic nominees – but I want to point out that 57 days is a very long time in a Presidential campaign and anything can happen to blow the doors off the race in either direction.

However, if the race stays closely fought to the end, there are a number of possible tie-breakers that could decide the outcome:

1. Polls are likely underestimating the turnout of young voters because many of these voters use cell phones and pollsters are having a difficult time including their views with accuracy. Obama has a big advantage with these voters. As a potential tie-breaker – ADVANTAGE OBAMA.

2. Polls are likely underestimating African-American turnout in the election for the same reason. Many of these households have cell phones instead of landlines, have only recently been registered to vote, or do not get through the screening questions of pollsters including “did you vote in the last election?” As a potential tie-breaker – ADVANTAGE OBAMA

3. The Bradley Effect. So named because when Tom Bradley, the African-American Mayor of Los Angeles ran for Governor of California polls showed him up by 10points – he lost the election. Pollsters later determined that many white voters had failed to tell pollsters the truth about how they intended to vote. I was Tom Bradley’s Deputy Campaign Manager in 1982. I saw the “Bradley effect” up close at the age of 26 – it was real. It is 26 years later and I can tell you two things for sure it isn’t the minus 10 points that it was in 1982 but it isn’t zero either. There will be an overestimation of the number of white voters casting ballots for Obama. As a potential tie-breaker – ADVANTAGE McCAIN.

The problem with these three tie-breakers is that they may well cancel each other out nationally. Higher than expected votes among younger voters and African-American voters will shield Obama from any concurrent lower than expected support from white voters across the nation. But what concerns me is that I doubt this will be the case on a state-by-state basis.

In other words, if more young voters in California vote for Obama, they do not (through the wonders of the electoral college) offset a lower than expected vote among white voters for him in Virginia., or Ohio or other swing state. Florida is a logical state to worry about where the advantage could work to McCain’s favor as just one example.

Two other potential tie-breakers are money and organization. On the money front its clearly ADVANTAGE OBAMA. Barack Obama will have far greater resources than the McCain campaign and the GOP — and with those resources Obama will be able to run much stronger field and get-out-the-vote operations in state after state than McCain.. Traditionally a strong organization can make up 1 or 2 points on election day – occasionally even 3 points. But is this already baked into the cake? If young voters and African American voters are going to be underestimated – are they not the 2 to 3 points Obama’s organization will be turning out?

And then there is the new found energy among the Republican right. Has McCain’s pick of Sarah Palin lit up a volunteer army on the right to rally a successful get-out-the –vote effort for McCain and compete with the Obama effort?

In the end the advantages, of increased turnout of younger voters and African Americans combined with Obama’s stronger resources and organization should put Barack Obama over the top. But the race has to stay close.

ADVANTAGE OBAMA.

Advice – take McCain seriously. There are 57 days left and he has kept the race a tie when the GOP nominee should be eating your dust.

Comments on this are Welcome. Will try to check in on the discussion and take part through the day Monday.

76 Responses to “Tie-Breakers. Advantage Obama. Advice? Take Nothing for Granted”

  1. karl dall weihnachtsgedicht 1 February 2012 at 5:07 am Permalink

    I want reading through and I believe this website got some really utilitarian stuff on it! .

  2. I have beeing scouring the google for this information and merely required to thank you for the post. BTW, merely off subject, how can I get a duplicate of this theme? – Thanks

  3. Bing 14 July 2012 at 4:52 am Permalink

    I love some words so much and may i quote a few of them on my weblog? I also have e-mailed you relating to could it be possible for us to exchange our links, hope talking with you soon.

  4. custom basketball jackets 29 July 2012 at 2:24 am Permalink

    What number of Bell Laboratories Vice Presidents does it decide on adjust the light light bulb? Which is Amazing details. Solution which is available from AT&T upon transaction involving permit charge (binary only).

  5. access owa 16 September 2012 at 3:59 pm Permalink

    Terrifіc ωork! This is thе kinԁ of information that аre mеant to be ѕhared асroѕs the internet.
    Dіsgrace on Google for not positionіng
    thiѕ post upper! Come on over anԁ conѕult with my web ѕite .
    Τhanks =)

  6. Manuel Mcinerny 7 February 2013 at 3:40 am Permalink

    Your extremely personal internet web web page is like your personal spot to the World wide web the place you can produce your communication to hundreds of 1000’s of your audience. That is a spot exactly in which your viewers could get for you, as effectively. Fundamentally, you will discover five principal excellent explanations that you ought to generate your personal web website in your affiliate advertising enterprise:

  7. dirty sex 11 February 2013 at 11:32 am Permalink

    Hi there! I understand this is kind of off-topic however I had to ask.

  8. visit 11 February 2013 at 6:48 pm Permalink

    Very good written story. It will be beneficial to anyone who utilizes it, including me. Keep up the good work – i will definitely read more posts.

  9. InternetReputation.com 12 February 2013 at 1:42 am Permalink

    Hello there! I just want to give you a big thumbs up for the great info you’ve got right here on this post. I am returning to your web site for more soon.

  10. Hugh Firmin 15 February 2013 at 6:14 pm Permalink

    Thanks for taking the time to discuss this, I really feel strongly about it and love studying more on this topic. If possible, as you gain experience, would you thoughts updating your weblog with additional data? It is extremely helpful for me.

  11. mygirlfund 27 February 2013 at 9:35 pm Permalink

    I want you to read this letter of my existence and also have a heart of kindness to help me, and my massive dollars will be transfer into your account as part of your country for investment undertaking immediately after that I’ll have the ability to come over there as part of your country to even further my education profession.

  12. w$p1erajmy hosp1cja 5 March 2013 at 3:05 pm Permalink

    you will have small my own intelect with this particular acceptable crafting! My organization is amazed representing the a advanced prevailing pureness anyone mirror in the crafting.

  13. cleaning service sarasota il 9 March 2013 at 5:50 am Permalink

    Utterly indited content material, regards for information. “The last time I saw him he was walking down Lover’s Lane holding his own hand.” by Fred Allen.

  14. Swamy ra ra watch online 9 March 2013 at 10:06 am Permalink

    Of course like your website but you need to have to check the spelling on several of your posts. Several of them are rife with spelling troubles and I find it extremely bothersome to tell the truth nevertheless I’ll undoubtedly come back again.

  15. systemy solarne 16 March 2013 at 10:39 am Permalink

    hello!,I love your writing so much! share we communicate more about your article on AOL? I require an expert in this area to resolve my problem. May be that’s you! Looking ahead to see you.

  16. Chong Lievano 18 April 2013 at 2:43 am Permalink

    our website

  17. cummins egr delete 20 April 2013 at 5:27 pm Permalink

    What i don’t understood is in reality how you’re now not really a lot more neatly-preferred than you may be now. You’re so intelligent. You recognize thus significantly in terms of this subject, produced me in my view consider it from numerous varied angles. Its like women and men aren’t fascinated until it’s one thing to do with Lady gaga! Your own stuffs great. Always handle it up!

  18. Paciência Spider 7 May 2013 at 3:18 am Permalink

    Pretty! This has been an incredibly wonderful article. Thank you for supplying these details.

  19. mygirlfund 7 May 2013 at 4:16 am Permalink

    the United kingdom Worldwide E-mail DRAW in London Uk. Your electronic mail has won you

  20. Eddie Culbreth 8 May 2013 at 9:22 am Permalink

    it seems like ages that i heve been searching for a site like this one? i am glad i found it,some great information here, i am new and just starting out, anyway thanks for some great tips..

  21. Rachele Mentkowski 9 February 2014 at 4:28 am Permalink

    I have recently started a site, the info you offer on this web site has helped me tremendously. Thank you for all of your time & work. “The word ‘genius’ isn’t applicable in football. A genius is a guy like Norman Einstein.” by Joe Theismann.


Leave a Reply